The objectives of this paper are to document the statistical characteristics of debt service cover ratios (DSCRs) in infrastructure project finance, and to develop and calibrate a model of DSCR dynamics. Advanced stochastic modelling of infrastructure project debt has the potential to considerably improve credit risk measures.

This paper is part of an ongoing research project aiming to create long-term investment benchmarks for investors in infrastructure. It is the first valuation and risk measurement model created specifically for unlisted infrastructure debt instruments.