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Infrastructure and Private Equities Capital Market Assumptions 2025 (Session 2: Europe/USA)
Join us on 24 April, 2025 at 2.00pm BST / 9.00am EST for our latest “Blitzinar” bringing you key insights in 15 minutes + 15 minutes for direct Q&A, where we will be presenting our recent report, “Expected Returns in Private Equities & Infrastructure: 2025 Capital Market Assumptions”, in which we provide updated 2025 Capital Market Assumptions utilising our infraMetrics® and privateMetrics® indices, including the infra300® and private2000® indices.
Key highlights of the report include:
Private infrastructure expected returns remain higher than past periods due to elevated government bond yields and a relatively stable equity risk premium. Median expected return and volatility for the infra300 index is 11.4% and 10.3%, respectively.
For private equities, recent returns have been anaemic (mid-single digits). Nonetheless, current expected returns reflect appropriate compensation for risk taken in the private equities market, assuming assets are marked to market. Moreover, by providing discount rates at the sector level, we enable a more granular assessment of return expectations across sectors.
We compare the infraMetrics and privateMetrics indices expected returns and volatilities assumptions against those provided by other market participants (BlackRock, Invesco, Morgan Stanley, Amundi, BNY, Allianz, PIMCO, Northern Trust, State Street). Longer term private infrastructure expected return assumptions range from 8%-11%. Volatility assumptions were wider, ranging from 14%-21%. For private equities, expected returns from investment houses ranged from 8%-11%, with volatility estimates very wide, from 11%-32%.
