Q4 2025 private2000® Index Report
The private2000® Index, which tracks 2,000 unlisted private companies globally, posted strong returns to finish the year with a 6.68% return for the quarter ending December 31, 2025, including a 0.92% return in December. For the full year, returns were 4.78%. Returns improved after a weak start to the year during Q1, which reflected in part, uncertainty around tariff policies.
Among the highlights of Q4 2025:
- Key Performance Drivers: All sectors showed strong performance in Q4, led by Real Estate & Construction (+10.1%), Information and Communication (+7.1%), and Health (+7.0%). Each of the ten sectors achieved at least mid-single digit returns, showing broad improvements relative to prior quarters.
- Sector and Geographic Breakdown: The largest weights in the index are Information & Communication (20.5%) and Professional Services (20.1%), with the top 5 sectors accounting for 80%. Geographically, the US dominates the index with a 47.4% allocation.
- Price returns were 5.9% for Q4, while cash returns were supportive at 0.78% for Q4. For the full year, price and cash returns were 1.65% and 3.13%, respectively. The stronger overall returns reversed the recent trend of cash returns dominating price returns.
- Index Valuation. EV/Sales at quarter end was 1.61x, up from 1.48x at the end of Q1. For EV/EBITDA (unadjusted), the index stood at 15.97x (mean), up from 14.9x in March of 2025. The median EV/EBITDA for the index stood at 14.3x as of December 31, 2025. Multiples have rebounded over the last six months, reversing the general downward trend since late 2022.
- Five of six risk factors contributed positively in Q4, consistent with the overall strong returns in the quarter. Specifically, the growth, country risk, profit, and size factors had the most significant positive contribution. This benefited companies with high exposure to these characteristics – namely, lower growth, lower country risk, higher profit, and larger size. Please see page 12 of the report for more discussion on asset betas and factor returns.
- Using the PECCS taxonomy, companies with production-based revenue models, business-focused customers, mature operations, and both products and service-oriented offerings were the key contributors to index performance.
Takeaway: Private equities returns in Q4 2025 were strong, bringing full year returns to 4.78% for the flagship private2000 value weighted index. Valuation multiples improved, with index level EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA up consistently over the last six months. Deal values picked up in H2 2025, with several large transactions announced in the back half of the year. Further, private equity exit value showed signs of life, surpassing levels witnessed over the last two to three years, though counts remain sluggish.
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